On Sunday 12 May, Catalan elections will be held to choose the government of Catalonia. Yet already Spain’s president Sánchez is trying to manipulate voters to avoid any victory by pro-independence Puigdemont and his allies.
Catalan elections: independence parties were already on the rise
Four years ago, Catalan pro-independence parties won with 52% of the votes and 55% of the seats. A Catalan pro-independence government of ERC and JUNTS was formed with the support of the CUP. But different strategies in the face of constant Spanish judicial repression meant that ERC was left alone in the government.
In these Catalan elections, the situation is totally different, because the result of the last Spanish elections has forced the PSOE to make a pact with JUNTS so that its seven votes would contribute to the investiture of President Pedro Sánchez.
This has forced him to accept an amnesty law with which, soon, all those persecuted by the “lawfare” (judicial warfare using fraudulently the law) of the Spanish justice system will be free of any accusation.
Among them, the Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, who in 2017 organised the referendum on self-determination, was illegally deposed by the Spanish government and had to go into exile in Belgium to avoid being unjustly imprisoned.
Puigdemont is back
At the beginning of this election campaign, the PSC (the Catalan PSOE) was leading the polls because the majority of the non-independence vote is concentrated in this party. A little further behind were the two big pro-independence parties, ERC and JUNTS.
But then Puigdemont announced that he was standing as a candidate and that he would return triumphantly to Spain for the investiture with the protection of the amnesty he has managed to wrest from Spain. Then voting intentions began to shift towards JUNTS and closer and closer to the PSC.
The thing is that Puigdemont is the number one enemy of Spanish nationalism and arouses great fear in Spain, because he represents insubordination to the state and has not been able to be subdued. This is why, at the start of the election campaign, Pedro Sánchez surprised everyone with a reckless and disturbing juggling act.
Sánchez: manipulating the voters
Without warning, he published a letter on social media announcing that he was very upset with the extreme right because his wife was accused of corruption. And he announced that he was giving himself five days to reflect on whether he should leave the presidency.
Sánchez had always denied the claims of the pro-independence movement that they had been victims of “lawfare”, with the mantra that Spain is a state governed by the rule of law. But now he has acknowledged that, in Spain, judicial dirty war is being practised.
The country was left on the edge of the precipice, waiting for the president’s decision.
After five days he affirmed that he would continue and, taking advantage of the state of shock, tried to call on his followers to vote in the Catalan elections with the justification of demonstrating to the extreme right that Pedro Sánchez has the support of the people.
With this manipulative strategy, Sánchez managed to increase the PSC’s voting intentions and stay ahead of Puigdemont.
Catalan elections will be a litmus test
But as the elections approach, it seems that this trend of PSC growth has stalled and, on the other hand, the pro-independence electorate is concentrating its vote on Puigdemont.
We shall see who ends up winning.
In any case, even if Puigdemont does not come out on top, it is possible that he will be the only one to obtain a majority to be invested as president of Catalonia.
In this case: how will Spain react to a person it has persecuted so viscerally? Will it respect the will expressed at the ballot box or will it give free rein to its repressive nationalism?
Featured image via Albert Salamé
