In the first attack on Lebanon’s capital Beirut since the recent increase in Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Israel killed three members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). But as political analyst Omar Baddar insisted, the target wasn’t what mattered; it’s what the attack represented. And that is Israel crossing all the red lines it can to provoke a response from Lebanon, and possibly Iran, which could justify “an all-out war” in the region.
The point of Israel striking downtown Beirut isn’t really to assassinate PFLP leaders no one cares about, the point is actually to strike downtown Beirut.
The point is to cross all redlines, to terrorize all of a Lebanon & show them who’s in charge, & to force Hezbollah & Iran…
— Omar Baddar عمر بدّار (@OmarBaddar) September 30, 2024
As Baddar added, Israel can’t turn Lebanon into Gaza yet, because it knows that would increase internal pressure on its Western allies to withdraw their essentially unconditional support.
If they started turning Lebanon into Gaza now, there would be greater international opposition. But if they provoke a reaction they can milk as justification for a campaign of all-out ethnic cleansing & obliteration, they’ll do it with greater impunity.
— Omar Baddar عمر بدّار (@OmarBaddar) September 30, 2024
The West backs Netanyahu, but is using up its excuses
Unsurprisingly, given its genocidal behaviour in Gaza, the Israeli attacks on Lebanon have shown little interest in protecting civilians. And that is because the West’s support has emboldened war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hezbollah would have made concessions if Israel had accepted a ceasefire in Gaza. But because its leaders knew the US government wouldn’t react negatively to an escalation in hostilities, it preferred to make war instead of peace.
And of course, the US proved Israel right, continuing to gaslight people by saying Israel’s actions are about ‘defence’ and that it’s Iran that’s pushing for more conflict. Any brief look at the West’s history of meddling in Iran would highlight the absurdity of that position.
As Quincy Institute Iran expert Trita Parsi has insisted, “thanks to Biden’s blank check to Netanyahu, it seems irrelevant to Israel what Iran’s red lines are”. Iran, meanwhile, is losing patience regarding Western promises.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, has slammed the US and European failure to provide a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Iran holding back after Israel’s July assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political bureau chief. He asserted that these claims “were all lies”.
Up to this point, Parsi told CNN, Iran has “shown a tremendous amount of restraint”. The Iranian government has good reasons to avoid conflict, including attempts to make peace with the West and improve the domestic economy. However:
Hezbollah, in many different ways, has been Iran’s first line of defence against Israel. If Hezbollah truly is degraded… then it would leave Iran tremendously vulnerable. And the question is, if they believe that that is the direction we are heading, they may calculate that they are better off reacting sooner rather than later. This is why so many of the other entities in the region – US allies – for so long have been pressuring the United States to put pressure on Israel to actually have a ceasefire in Gaza. Because that is the key to avoiding this escalation.
“A profound moral collapse” as Democrats shun diplomacy
Parsi criticised the US approach to Israel, saying:
Diplomacy is not what has been pursued in the last 11 months. The Biden administration cannot say that they’re working tirelessly around the clock to secure a ceasefire if they are simultaneously providing the Israelis with the weapons, the intelligence, and other means in order to be able to continue the fight that the Biden administration says they don’t want to see.
He added:
One cannot say that this is a failure of diplomacy. Because diplomacy was never truly tried.
He also tweeted that:
The silence in Western media about the massive civilian casualties in Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon reflects a profound moral collapse. When Israel assassinated the head of Hamas in 2004 and killed seven civilians, the GW Bush admin (!) condemned it. Biden-Harris, however, did not say a word about the hundreds of civilians who were killed alongside Nasrallah.
Israel may just get the war with Iran that it’s looking for
“Trump whisperer“, dodgy business lowlife, and ethnic cleansing fanboy Jared Kushner, meanwhile, has given us a look at how a Donald Trump presidency could make things even worse. He tweeted gleefully that “Iran is now fully exposed”. He also praised Israel’s “brilliant, rapid-fire tactical successes of the pagers, radios, and targeting of leadership”.
And in a comment that conjured up an image of him rubbing his hands together like a Bond villain, he said:
The Middle East is too often a solid where little changes. Today, it is a liquid and the ability to reshape is unlimited. Do not squander this moment.
Just think of the resources the West could gain access to if Israel was able to spread death and destruction a little bit further afield.
The cringeworthy bootlicking doublespeak saw Kushner praise “the peace-seeking nation of Israel” and add:
There is no going back for Israel. They cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them. …
The right move now for America would be to tell Israel to finish the job. It’s long overdue. And it’s not only Israel’s fight.
So whether it’s the Democrats or the Republicans, Israel is likely to get its war with Iran. And only an unprecedented mass mobilisation of anti-war voices could help to bring us back from the brink.
Featured image via the Canary
